Early Outlook Suggests 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Be Below Average
A forecast that points to a quieter season
An early look at the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is suggesting conditions may tilt toward a below-average year. The forecast comes from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2, which describe the season as likely to “lean below average.”
Seasonal hurricane outlooks are not day-to-day forecasts. Instead, they are broad assessments of whether the overall environment across the Atlantic basin may be more or less favorable for tropical storm and hurricane development over the course of a season. In this case, the projection points toward fewer storms than what is typically considered average.
The forecast team highlighted two main drivers behind the below-average expectation: El Niño conditions and relatively lukewarm Atlantic waters. Those factors are frequently discussed in seasonal hurricane guidance because they can shape the background atmosphere and ocean conditions that either support or suppress storm formation and intensification.
Why El Niño matters in hurricane season outlooks
One of the key signals cited in the forecast is El Niño. In seasonal hurricane discussions, El Niño is often treated as an important piece of the puzzle because it can influence atmospheric patterns over the Atlantic basin. When El Niño conditions are present, the overall environment can become less conducive to Atlantic tropical cyclone development.
That does not mean storms cannot form during El Niño. It means the large-scale setup may be less supportive on average, which can reduce the odds of a very active season. Seasonal forecasts typically incorporate El Niño as one of several major climate indicators, alongside sea-surface temperatures and other atmospheric patterns.
In the 2026 outlook described here, El Niño is presented as a primary reason the season could end up below average. The emphasis on this factor signals that forecasters see it as a meaningful influence on the basin-wide conditions that help determine how many systems form and how favorable the atmosphere is for storm growth.
The role of Atlantic water temperatures
The second major driver mentioned in the forecast is the state of Atlantic waters, described as “lukewarm.” Sea-surface temperatures are closely watched in hurricane forecasting because tropical cyclones draw energy from warm ocean water. Generally, warmer waters can provide more fuel for storm development and intensification, while cooler or less-warm waters can reduce that potential.
By pointing to lukewarm Atlantic waters, the forecast suggests that the ocean may not be offering as much supportive energy as it does in more active years. Like El Niño, this is not a guarantee of a quiet season; it is a signal that, in the aggregate, conditions may be less favorable for widespread or sustained activity.
Seasonal outlooks often weigh ocean temperatures heavily because they are a foundational ingredient for tropical systems. In this forecast, the combination of El Niño conditions and less-warm Atlantic waters is presented as a one-two set of influences that could keep overall activity below average.
How “below average” should be interpreted
The phrase “below average” can be easy to misunderstand, especially when it circulates outside of meteorological context. A below-average seasonal outlook does not imply there will be no hurricanes, nor does it mean there is no risk to coastal or inland communities.
Seasonal activity is measured across an entire basin and across an entire season. Even in a year that ends up below average, a single storm can cause major impacts if it tracks toward populated areas. Conversely, an above-average season can include many storms that never make landfall.
That is why seasonal forecasts are best read as a broad indicator of the overall background environment rather than a promise of what will happen in any specific location. The 2026 outlook described here is essentially a statement that the large-scale setup may not be as supportive of frequent storm formation as it can be in more active years.
Comparing outlooks: why different forecasts can diverge
The forecast discussion also raises a common question: how does this projection compare with other outlooks that have been released? Even when forecasters are looking at similar climate signals, different organizations can produce different seasonal expectations.
There are several reasons seasonal hurricane outlooks may not match perfectly:
Different weighting of the same signals. Some outlooks may place more emphasis on El Niño, while others may focus more on ocean temperatures or other atmospheric factors.
Different time windows and update schedules. Some forecasts are issued earlier, some later, and many are updated as the season approaches and confidence changes.
Different modeling approaches. Seasonal outlooks can be built from distinct statistical methods, dynamical models, or blended systems, which can lead to different conclusions even with similar inputs.
In this case, the outlook from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 is specifically described as below average, driven by El Niño and lukewarm Atlantic waters. When comparing that to other forecasts, the most useful approach is to look for themes: Are multiple outlooks highlighting El Niño? Are they also pointing to Atlantic water temperatures as a limiting factor? Where do they disagree?
Understanding those points of agreement and disagreement can help audiences interpret the range of possibilities rather than focusing on a single number or label.
What a seasonal outlook can and cannot tell you
Seasonal hurricane forecasts are valuable because they summarize the big-picture climate backdrop. They can help emergency managers, businesses, and residents begin thinking about preparedness timelines, staffing, supplies, and communication plans. They can also provide context for how the season might compare with a typical year.
But there are clear limits. A seasonal outlook cannot specify where storms will form, which coastlines will see the highest risk, or whether any particular community will experience landfall impacts. Those details emerge only when individual systems develop and shorter-range forecasts become possible.
As a result, even a below-average outlook should be paired with the understanding that hurricane risk is never zero. Preparedness decisions are often best made independent of seasonal totals, because impacts are driven by track, intensity near land, rainfall, storm surge, and how quickly a storm moves—factors that are not captured by a basin-wide seasonal label.
Why early forecasts still matter
Even with uncertainty, early outlooks are widely followed because they offer a starting point for planning. The 2026 forecast described here arrives with a clear rationale: El Niño conditions and lukewarm Atlantic waters are seen as key influences that could suppress overall activity.
As the season draws closer, outlooks are often revisited and refined. Changes in El Niño status, shifts in ocean temperatures, or evolving atmospheric patterns can nudge projections up or down. That is one reason it is common to see multiple updates over time.
For readers and viewers, the practical takeaway is that the forecast is a snapshot of the current thinking based on the signals highlighted. It is not a final verdict on what the season will bring.
Key points from the 2026 outlook
The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 have issued a forecast suggesting the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could lean below average.
The forecast team cited El Niño conditions as one of the main drivers behind the expectation of reduced activity.
They also pointed to relatively lukewarm Atlantic waters as another key factor that may limit storm development and intensification potential.
The outlook invites comparison with other seasonal forecasts that have already been released, which may differ based on methods, timing, and how various climate signals are weighted.
Staying grounded as the season approaches
Seasonal hurricane outlooks can be useful tools when they are interpreted carefully. The 2026 forecast described here is built around two commonly monitored signals—El Niño and Atlantic water temperatures—and it frames those signals as supportive of a below-average season.
At the same time, the most important reality of hurricane season remains unchanged regardless of seasonal totals: impacts are local. Whether the basin ends up below average or not, communities benefit from tracking updates as new outlooks are released and, eventually, as individual systems develop.
For now, the early message is straightforward: current indicators highlighted in this forecast are pointing toward a less active Atlantic hurricane season in 2026 than the long-term average, with El Niño conditions and lukewarm Atlantic waters identified as the primary reasons.